· Referee D. McFarlane · Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Raith Rovers vs Arbroath Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Raith Rovers and 0.73 for Arbroath, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Raith Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Raith Rovers win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Raith Rovers home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arbroath away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raith Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Raith Rovers and 0.73 for Arbroath, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.2%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Raith Rovers
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-0 (D)
Arbroath
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Raith Rovers win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.