· Referee C. Scott · Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Raith Rovers and 0.83 for Stenhousemuir, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Raith Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Raith Rovers home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stenhousemuir away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raith Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 33% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Raith Rovers and 0.83 for Stenhousemuir, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.5%
- 1–016.1%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
Raith Rovers
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Inverness CT · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 2-0 (W)
Stenhousemuir
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Partick | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.