Raków Częstochowa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa U19 and 1.25 for Arka Gdynia U19, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Raków Częstochowa U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Raków Częstochowa U19 win

59.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Raków Częstochowa U19 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raków Częstochowa U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Raków Częstochowa U19 and 1.25 for Arka Gdynia U19, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 64%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Raków Częstochowa U19 win60%

Draw20%

Arka Gdynia U19 win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–18.5%
2–07.6%
3–17.2%
1–06.8%

Recent form

Raków Częstochowa U19

2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Zabrze U19 · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Talent Warszawa U19 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań U19 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce U19 · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica U19 · 0-1 (L)

Arka Gdynia U19

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Central Youth League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Legia Warszawa U19	12	7	4	1	11	25
2	Miedź Legnica U19	12	8	1	3	12	25
3	Śląsk Wrocław U19	12	6	3	3	5	21
4	Wisła Kraków U19	12	5	5	2	6	20
5	Górnik Zabrze U19	12	4	6	2	7	18
6	Zagłębie Lubin U19	12	5	3	4	1	18
7	Jagiellonia U19	12	5	3	4	2	18
8	Arkonia U19	12	4	5	3	-1	17
9	Raków Częstochowa U19	12	5	1	6	0	16
10	Lech Poznań U19	12	5	1	6	0	16
11	Talent Warszawa U19	12	5	0	7	-5	15
12	Polonia Warszawa U19	12	4	2	6	2	14
13	Stal Rzeszów U19	12	4	2	6	-7	14
14	Korona Kielce U19	12	2	4	6	-11	10
15	Arka Gdynia U19	12	2	3	7	-10	9
16	Escola Varsovia U19	12	2	3	7	-12	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Raków Częstochowa U19 win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.