Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie · Referee Damian Kos · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 2.00 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives GKS Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GKS Katowice win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Raków Częstochowa home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GKS Katowice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GKS Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 21% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 2.00 for GKS Katowice, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.6%
Recent form
Raków Częstochowa
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-3 (L)
GKS Katowice
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 26 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Radomiak Radom | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GKS Katowice win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.