· Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Raków Częstochowa vs Polonia Bytom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.56 for Polonia Bytom, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Raków Częstochowa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Raków Częstochowa home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Bytom away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raków Częstochowa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.56 for Polonia Bytom, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Raków Częstochowa
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Motor Lublin · 2-1 (W)
Polonia Bytom
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.