Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.95 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Widzew Łódź the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Widzew Łódź win

49.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Raków Częstochowa home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Widzew Łódź away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Raków Częstochowa win28%

Draw22%

Widzew Łódź win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.5%
1–29.3%
2–16.8%
0–16.7%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Raków Częstochowa

2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs GKS Katowice · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Korona Kielce · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaglebie Lubin · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Motor Lublin · 2-1 (W)

Widzew Łódź

2026-10-11T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Piast Gliwice · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Łęczna · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Wieczysta Kraków · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Radomiak Radom · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-04T12:45:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
2025-09-28T10:15:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
2025-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
2024-11-30T19:15:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 3-2 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
2024-04-27T18:00:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
2023-10-29T16:30:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
2023-04-16T13:00:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)
2022-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · Raków Częstochowa 0-0 Widzew Łódź (Ekstraklasa)

Ekstraklasa table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	8	1	1	10	25
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	13	22
3	Legia Warszawa	10	6	4	0	13	22
4	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	3	1	8	18
5	GKS Katowice	10	6	0	4	7	18
6	Wisla Krakow	10	5	2	3	3	17
7	Piast Gliwice	10	5	1	4	2	16
8	Korona Kielce	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Zaglebie Lubin	10	4	3	3	-1	15
10	Jagiellonia	9	4	0	5	-3	12
11	Cracovia Krakow	10	3	2	5	-3	11
12	Wisla Plock	9	3	2	4	-6	11
13	Widzew Łódź	10	1	6	3	-1	9
14	Motor Lublin	10	2	3	5	-5	9
15	Wieczysta Kraków	10	2	2	6	-4	8
16	Radomiak Radom	10	2	2	6	-14	8
17	Slask Wroclaw	10	1	3	6	-7	6
18	Raków Częstochowa	10	1	0	9	-12	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Widzew Łódź win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.