· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Rakow II vs Odra Bytom Odrzański Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Rakow II and 1.24 for Odra Bytom Odrzański, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Odra Bytom Odrzański the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Odra Bytom Odrzański win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rakow II home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Odra Bytom Odrzański away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Odra Bytom Odrzański to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 23% / 30% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Rakow II and 1.24 for Odra Bytom Odrzański, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–210.2%
Recent form
Rakow II
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 4-5 (L)
Odra Bytom Odrzański
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Carina Gubin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs ROW Rybnik · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Warta Gorzów · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedź Legnica II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Sparta Katowice | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Odra Bytom Odrzański | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 4 | Zagłębie Lubin II | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Barycz Sułów | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | ROW Rybnik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Karkonosze Jelenia Góra | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Górnik Polkowice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Miedź Legnica II | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Stilon Gorzów | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 11 | Stal Brzeg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Goczałkowice Zdrój | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 13 | Kluczbork | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 15 |
| 14 | Warta Gorzów | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | Rakow II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Polonia Nysa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Carina Gubin | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | Ślęza Wrocław | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Odra Bytom Odrzański win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.