· Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Rakow II vs SKRA Częstochowa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rakow II and 1.95 for SKRA Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives SKRA Częstochowa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rakow II home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
SKRA Częstochowa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SKRA Częstochowa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 22% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Rakow II and 1.95 for SKRA Częstochowa, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Rakow II
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Brzeg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Stilon Gorzów · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 4-5 (L)
SKRA Częstochowa
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Słowianin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Goczałkowice Zdrój · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Katowice · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ślęza Wrocław · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Górnik Zabrze II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.