· Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Râmnicu Sărat vs Plopeni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Râmnicu Sărat and 1.75 for Plopeni, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Plopeni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Râmnicu Sărat home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plopeni away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Plopeni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Râmnicu Sărat and 1.75 for Plopeni, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Râmnicu Sărat
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CSM Adjud · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Unirea Braniştea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Oţelul II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Braila · 3-3 (D)
Plopeni
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Râmnicu Sărat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pucioasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Voința Crevedia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blejoi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Draganesti · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 25 |
| 2 | Tunari | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Berca | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Voința Crevedia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Progresul Draganesti | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Urban Titu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 8 | Plopeni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Pucioasa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Râmnicu Sărat | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.