Sagbakken Stadion · Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
Rana vs Tromsdalen Uil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rana and 1.80 for Tromsdalen Uil, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Tromsdalen Uil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rana home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tromsdalen Uil away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tromsdalen Uil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Rana and 1.80 for Tromsdalen Uil, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.6%
Recent form
Rana
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Junkeren · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hønefoss · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lørenskog · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ull/Kisa · 2-1 (W)
Tromsdalen Uil
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Eidsvold · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjørdals-Blink · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Levanger · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hønefoss · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 25 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 60 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 56 |
| 3 | Levanger | 25 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 52 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 49 |
| 5 | Grorud | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 46 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 39 |
| 7 | Tromsdalen Uil | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 38 |
| 8 | Lørenskog | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | -1 | 37 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | -9 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 25 | 7 | 2 | 16 | -17 | 23 |
| 12 | Follo | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -19 | 20 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 25 | 4 | 1 | 20 | -52 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 25 | 2 | 4 | 19 | -35 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.