· Analysis updated 00:07 UTC
Rancho Santana vs UNAN Managua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Rancho Santana and 1.58 for UNAN Managua, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives UNAN Managua the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UNAN Managua win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rancho Santana home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UNAN Managua away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UNAN Managua to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 19% / 25% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for Rancho Santana and 1.58 for UNAN Managua, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–29.2%
Recent form
Rancho Santana
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T21:00:00.000Z · A vs H&H Export · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 1-6 (L)
UNAN Managua
- 2026-08-31T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Diriangén · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 8 | Matagalpa | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -22 | 10 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UNAN Managua win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.