Cepheus Park · Referee S. Putros · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Randers FC vs Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Randers FC and 1.53 for Aarhus, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Aarhus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Randers FC home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aarhus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aarhus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Randers FC and 1.53 for Aarhus, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Randers FC
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonderjyske · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vendsyssel FF · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brondby · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-1 (W)
Aarhus
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjold Sæby · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Silkeborg · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Viborg | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Brondby | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Silkeborg | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Odense | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Lyngby | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.