Cepheus Park · Analysis updated 18:57 UTC
Randers FC vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Randers FC and 1.46 for FC Nordsjaelland, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives FC Nordsjaelland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Nordsjaelland win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Randers FC home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Nordsjaelland away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Nordsjaelland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Randers FC and 1.46 for FC Nordsjaelland, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–28.3%
Recent form
Randers FC
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brondby · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Viborg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonderjyske · 2-4 (L)
FC Nordsjaelland
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viborg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vatanspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 25 |
| 3 | Viborg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Brondby | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Odense | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 8 | Silkeborg | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lyngby | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Nordsjaelland win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.