Estadio Fiscal de Talca · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Rangers de Talca vs Cobreloa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Rangers de Talca and 1.95 for Cobreloa, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Cobreloa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cobreloa win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rangers de Talca home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cobreloa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.3%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.5%
Recent form
Rangers de Talca
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Iquique · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 1-0 (W)
Cobreloa
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Recoleta · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Coquimbo Unido · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Temuco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago Wanderers · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-31T21:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 0-2 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2025-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-4 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2025-03-15T21:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-1 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2023-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-2 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2023-06-03T21:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 0-2 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2022-07-24T16:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 0-1 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2022-03-08T23:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-2 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2021-11-13T18:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-4 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2021-08-16T20:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 4-0 Cobreloa (Primera B)
- 2020-11-16T14:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 0-3 Cobreloa (Primera B)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 53 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 47 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 46 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 45 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 41 |
| 7 | San Marcos de Arica | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 40 |
| 9 | Deportes Temuco | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 10 | Union Espanola | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportes Iquique | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 35 |
| 12 | D. Puerto Montt | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 35 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -14 | 23 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -32 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -18 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cobreloa win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.