Estadio Fiscal de Talca · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Rangers de Talca vs Union San Felipe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rangers de Talca and 0.77 for Union San Felipe, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Rangers de Talca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rangers de Talca win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rangers de Talca home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union San Felipe away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–012.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 0–19.5%
Recent form
Rangers de Talca
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Antofagasta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Iquique · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · A vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Espanola · 1-0 (W)
Union San Felipe
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Santa Cruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Curico Unido · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cobreloa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-2 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2025-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 2-1 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2025-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 2-0 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2024-09-08T21:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-1 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2024-04-28T22:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 2-1 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2023-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-4 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2023-04-22T16:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-3 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2022-07-18T22:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 2-1 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2022-03-02T23:30:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 0-1 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
- 2021-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · Rangers de Talca 1-2 Union San Felipe (Primera B)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 48 |
| 2 | San Luis | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 46 |
| 4 | Antofagasta | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 44 |
| 5 | Santiago Wanderers | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 44 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 41 |
| 7 | Deportes Copiapo | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 40 |
| 8 | San Marcos de Arica | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 39 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 36 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 35 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 31 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 27 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -28 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -19 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rangers de Talca win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.