Ibrox Stadium · Referee J. Beaton · Analysis updated 03:43 UTC
Rangers vs ST Mirren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Rangers and 0.87 for ST Mirren, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rangers win
66.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rangers home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ST Mirren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Rangers
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ST Johnstone · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 3-0 (W)
ST Mirren
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aberdeen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · Rangers 1-0 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · Rangers 5-1 ST Mirren (League Cup)
- 2026-03-15T12:00:00.000Z · Rangers 1-0 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Rangers 2-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-08-24T11:00:00.000Z · Rangers 1-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Rangers 2-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Rangers 0-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-12-26T17:45:00.000Z · Rangers 1-2 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Rangers 2-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
- 2024-04-28T11:30:00.000Z · Rangers 2-1 ST Mirren (Premiership)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rangers win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.