Pakansari Stadium · Analysis updated 19:12 UTC
RANS Nusantara vs Persela Lamongan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for RANS Nusantara and 1.43 for Persela Lamongan, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Persela Lamongan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RANS Nusantara home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persela Lamongan away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persela Lamongan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for RANS Nusantara and 1.43 for Persela Lamongan, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–18.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 63.5% | 65.3% | 1.53 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.1% | 74.5% | 1.34 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 39.0% | 39.8% | 2.51 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.1% | 2.08 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 34.5% | 34.7% | 2.88 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 25.5% | 3.92 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 63.5% | 60.2% | 1.66 | -3.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
RANS Nusantara
- 2025-02-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Persipa Pati · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-02-21T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Persipura Jayapura · 0-8 (L)
- 2025-02-13T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Persipal · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-02-09T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Persikas · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-02-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Persipal · 0-2 (L)
Persela Lamongan
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs RANS Nusantara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Deltras · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Barito Putera · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSBS Biak Numfor · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persiba Balikpapan · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persela Lamongan | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Deltras | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | PSMS Medan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| 4 | PSPS | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Persikad Depok FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | RANS Nusantara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | PSIS Semarang | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Semen Padang | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | PSGC Ciamis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Persipura Jayapura | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Persis Solo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Barito Putera | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dejan | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sumsel United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Bekasi City | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Persiku Kudus | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Persiraja Banda Aceh | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 | Persiba Balikpapan | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | PSBS Biak Numfor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.