Allianz Stadion · Referee Elcin Masiyev, Azerbaijan · Analysis updated 11:55 UTC
Rapid Vienna vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.96 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Rapid Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rapid Vienna win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rapid Vienna home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heart Of Midlothian away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rapid Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.96 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 6.60 | 14.1% | 15.9% | 6.29 | +1.8 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.53 | 61.6% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 44.9% | 45.6% | 2.19 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.65 | 35.0% | 35.7% | 2.80 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.35 | 40.1% | 40.2% | 2.49 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.45 | 64.4% | 64.4% | 1.55 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.9% | 59.8% | 1.67 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 84.3% | 84.2% | 1.19 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 80.7% | 80.3% | 1.25 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 54.4% | 1.84 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.45 | 38.4% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.35 | 21.5% | 19.8% | 5.05 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rapid Vienna
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt · 5-2 (W)
Heart Of Midlothian
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Falkirk · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 27 | Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rapid Vienna win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.