World · UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round16:00

20

Wednesday, 12 August 2026

Allianz Stadion · Referee D. Shurman · Analysis updated 05:15 UTC

Rapid Vienna vs Paide Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.42 for Paide, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Rapid Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws roughly 29% of the time.

Model pick

Rapid Vienna to Win

71.1% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

3.13 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rapid Vienna win71%
Draw15%
Paide win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%
Over 2.5 goals83%
Over 3.5 goals66%
Both teams to score72%

Correct score

  • 3–17.7%
  • 2–17.4%
  • 4–16.0%
  • 3–25.5%
  • 3–05.4%

Why the model likes this

  • Rapid Vienna home form

    15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Rapid Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 3.13 goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.42 for Paide, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 72%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Rapid Vienna

  • 2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ried · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paide · 4-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Santa Coloma · 6-2 (W)

Paide

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.