Rapid Vienna vs Paide Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.42 for Paide, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Rapid Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rapid Vienna win

71.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.13 – 1.42

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rapid Vienna home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paide away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rapid Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.13 goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.42 for Paide, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rapid Vienna win71%

Draw15%

Paide win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

3–17.7%
2–17.4%
4–16.0%
3–25.5%
3–05.4%

Recent form

Rapid Vienna

2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt · 5-2 (W)

Paide

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tammeka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Levadia Tallinn · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · Rapid Vienna 2-0 Paide (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · Rapid Vienna 4-1 Paide (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rapid Vienna win, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.