Allianz Stadion · Referee Stefan Ebner, Austria · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.85 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Rapid Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rapid Vienna win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rapid Vienna home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sturm Graz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rapid Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.85 for Sturm Graz, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.7%
- 1–18.4%
Recent form
Rapid Vienna
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-5 (L)
Sturm Graz
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 7 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rapid Vienna win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.