Romania · Liga I · Matchweek 1018:00
RapidWWWWD

3 – 1

Friday, 18 September 2026

Giulești · Referee Marius Florin Badea, Romania · Analysis updated 14:12 UTC

Rapid vs Arges Pitesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Rapid and 0.52 for Arges Pitesti, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Rapid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rapid win

51.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 0.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

  • Rapid home form

    10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Arges Pitesti away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Head-to-head goals

    Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Rapid win51%
Draw32%
Arges Pitesti win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals50%
Over 2.5 goals24%
Over 3.5 goals9%
Both teams to score28%

Correct score

  • 1–021.5%
  • 0–018.7%
  • 2–012.4%
  • 1–111.3%
  • 0–19.8%

Recent form

Rapid

  • 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arges Pitesti · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Voluntari · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oţelul · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 2-0 (W)

Arges Pitesti

  • 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 0-0 (D)
  • 2026-09-30T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Cetate Deva · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-09-07T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Voluntari · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

  • 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · Rapid 3-1 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2026-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · Rapid 2-2 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2026-04-13T15:30:00.000Z · Rapid 0-0 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2025-12-02T17:30:00.000Z · Rapid 1-2 Arges Pitesti (Cupa României)
  • 2025-11-08T18:30:00.000Z · Rapid 2-0 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2025-07-11T18:30:00.000Z · Rapid 2-0 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2022-12-04T17:00:00.000Z · Rapid 1-1 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2022-08-06T18:45:00.000Z · Rapid 2-1 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2021-12-10T18:30:00.000Z · Rapid 2-0 Arges Pitesti (Liga I)
  • 2021-09-04T00:00:00.000Z · Rapid 2-2 Arges Pitesti (Friendlies Clubs)
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Dinamo Bucuresti118211826
2Rapid11731924
3Universitatea Craiova117221623
4Petrolul Ploiesti11614-119
5Universitatea Cluj11605218
6Farul Constanta11452217
7Corvinul Hunedoara11443316
8CFR 1907 Cluj11515016
9FCSB11434-315
10FC Botosani11353414
11Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe11344-513
12Uta Arad11335-312
13Arges Pitesti11326-511
14Oţelul11245-510
15FC Voluntari11227-148
16Csikszereda110110-181

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rapid win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.