· Analysis updated 13:46 UTC
Rapid vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Rapid and 0.80 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Rapid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rapid win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rapid home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rapid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Rapid and 0.80 for Genoa, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 2–011.9%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Rapid
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arges Pitesti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Voluntari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oţelul · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 2-0 (W)
Genoa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rapid win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.