Allianz Stadion · Analysis updated 08:47 UTC
Rapid Wien II vs FC Liefering Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rapid Wien II and 1.51 for FC Liefering, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives FC Liefering the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rapid Wien II home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Liefering to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Rapid Wien II and 1.51 for FC Liefering, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.30 (model 41.5% vs market 28.3%, edge +13.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.30 | 28.3% | 41.5% | 2.41 | +13.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 34.4% | 35.0% | 2.86 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 75.3% | 1.33 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.57 | 59.8% | 59.7% | 1.68 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.9% | 24.7% | 4.05 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.2% | 65.0% | 1.54 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 40.7% | 40.3% | 2.48 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.30 | 71.7% | 58.5% | 1.71 | -13.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rapid Wien II
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SKU Amstetten · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SKN ST. Polten · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wacker Innsbruck · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 0-2 (L)
FC Liefering
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC BW Linz · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 25 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 4 | Admira Wacker | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | SKU Amstetten | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Wacker Innsbruck | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Floridsdorfer AC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Voitsberg | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | SKN ST. Polten | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | SV Kapfenberg | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Rapid Wien II | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.