Sportstadion Grünfeld · Analysis updated 04:46 UTC
Rapperswil Jona W vs Aarau W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.28 expected goals for Rapperswil Jona W and 1.48 for Aarau W, a combined total of 4.76. That distribution gives Rapperswil Jona W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rapperswil Jona W win
72.1% probability
Expected goals
3.28 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rapperswil Jona W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aarau W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.5%
- 2–16.8%
- 4–16.1%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.1%
Recent form
Rapperswil Jona W
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarau W · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basel W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette Chênois W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern W · 0-2 (L)
Aarau W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil Jona W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Boys W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Yverdon W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen W · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 5-2 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2026-03-18T18:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 0-0 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 1-1 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2025-03-01T15:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 1-3 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 0-1 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2024-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 2-3 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 0-0 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2023-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 1-5 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
- 2022-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil Jona W 1-1 Aarau W (AXA Women’s Super League)
AXA Women’s Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Servette Chênois W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Zürich W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Young Boys W | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Grasshopper W | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Basel W | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Luzern W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Rapperswil Jona W | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Yverdon W | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | St. Gallen W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
| 10 | Aarau W | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rapperswil Jona W win, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.