· Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Rapperswil vs Stade Nyonnais Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Rapperswil and 0.91 for Stade Nyonnais, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Rapperswil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rapperswil win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rapperswil home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Nyonnais away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 49.7% vs market 36.5%, edge +13.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +13.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 39.3% | 40.7% | 2.46 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.5% | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 59.3% | 59.3% | 1.69 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 18.5% | 18.2% | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.1% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.6% | 77.5% | 1.29 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -13.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rapperswil
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 2-3 (L)
Stade Nyonnais
- 2026-10-23T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Winterthur · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-16T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Aarau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC WIL 1900 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil 2-1 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2026-05-15T18:15:00.000Z · Rapperswil 2-1 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2026-03-20T18:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil 1-2 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2025-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil 1-0 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2025-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil 0-1 Stade Nyonnais (Challenge League)
- 2023-04-19T17:30:00.000Z · Rapperswil 2-4 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2022-10-15T15:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil 4-0 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2022-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil 1-1 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2021-10-30T15:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil 0-1 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2021-06-05T14:00:00.000Z · Rapperswil 2-1 Stade Nyonnais (1. Liga Promotion)
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rapperswil win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.