· Referee M. Londino · Analysis updated 02:48 UTC
Rapperswil vs Yverdon Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rapperswil and 2.38 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Yverdon Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yverdon Sport win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rapperswil home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yverdon Sport away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yverdon Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 21% / 19% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Rapperswil and 2.38 for Yverdon Sport, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.7%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Rapperswil
- 2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Aarau · 2-3 (L)
Yverdon Sport
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapperswil · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Nyonnais · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Neuchatel Xamax FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Yverdon Sport | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Kriens | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yverdon Sport win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.