Sisaket Provincial Stadium · Analysis updated 10:37 UTC
Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rasi Salai United and 1.73 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Rasi Salai United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rasi Salai United home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lamphun Warrior away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rasi Salai United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Rasi Salai United and 1.73 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.3%
Recent form
Rasi Salai United
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BG Pathum United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mahasarakham United · 3-0 (W)
Lamphun Warrior
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rasi Salai United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Port FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Prachuap · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.