Sisaket Provincial Stadium · Analysis updated 19:00 UTC
Rasi Salai United vs Mahasarakham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Rasi Salai United and 1.14 for Mahasarakham United, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Rasi Salai United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rasi Salai United win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rasi Salai United home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mahasarakham United away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rasi Salai United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Rasi Salai United and 1.14 for Mahasarakham United, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Rasi Salai United
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BG Pathum United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mahasarakham United · 3-0 (W)
Mahasarakham United
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Uttaradit · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanchanaburi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Songkhla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Chainat | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Kanchanaburi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Muang Loei United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rasi Salai United win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.