Dragon Solar Park · Referee C. Inboonsong · Analysis updated 16:35 UTC
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.20 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Ratchaburi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ratchaburi win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ratchaburi home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayong FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ratchaburi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Ratchaburi and 1.20 for Rayong FC, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Ratchaburi
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Chonburi FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pattani · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sukhothai FC · 6-0 (W)
Rayong FC
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Port FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thap Luang United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ratchaburi win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.