· Analysis updated 23:05 UTC
Rathfriland vs Moyola Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Rathfriland and 1.37 for Moyola Park, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Rathfriland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rathfriland home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Moyola Park away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Rathfriland
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ards · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Glenavon FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 0-4 (L)
Moyola Park
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundela · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newington Youth · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Glenavon FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T14:00:06.000Z · Rathfriland 0-1 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2026-03-10T19:45:00.000Z · Rathfriland 1-2 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Rathfriland 3-0 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Rathfriland 2-3 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2024-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · Rathfriland 1-2 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
- 2023-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · Rathfriland 3-0 Moyola Park (Premier Intermediate League)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.