Rathfriland vs Oxford Sunnyside Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Rathfriland and 1.26 for Oxford Sunnyside, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Rathfriland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Rathfriland win

66.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.63 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rathfriland home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Oxford Sunnyside away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rathfriland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Rathfriland and 1.26 for Oxford Sunnyside, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Rathfriland win67%

Draw17%

Oxford Sunnyside win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–18.9%
3–17.8%
2–07.1%
1–16.8%
3–06.2%

Recent form

Rathfriland

2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ards · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Glenavon FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 0-4 (L)

Oxford Sunnyside

2026-07-24T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-5 (L)
2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Banbridge Town · 4-3 (W)
2026-04-21T17:45:35.000Z · A vs Knockbreda · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-18T14:00:06.000Z · A vs Portstewart · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Intermediate League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strabane Athletic	25	15	3	7	11	48
2	Dollingstown	26	14	4	8	18	46
3	Moyola Park	25	13	4	8	34	43
4	Rathfriland	22	13	2	7	30	41
5	Newry City AFC	24	12	5	7	8	41
6	Ballymacash Rangers	24	13	1	10	11	40
7	Dergview	23	10	6	7	5	36
8	Ballyclare Comrades	26	11	3	12	-2	36
9	Oxford Sunnyside	25	11	2	12	6	35
10	Portstewart	25	9	7	9	-1	34
11	Knockbreda	25	9	6	10	-6	33
12	Coagh United	26	7	6	13	-19	27
13	Lisburn Distillery	25	7	4	14	-16	25
14	Banbridge Town	23	1	1	21	-79	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Rathfriland win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.