· Analysis updated 12:52 UTC
Rathfriland vs Warrenpoint Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rathfriland and 1.92 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Warrenpoint Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Warrenpoint Town win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rathfriland home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Warrenpoint Town away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warrenpoint Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 24% / 22% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Rathfriland and 1.92 for Warrenpoint Town, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Rathfriland
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ards · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Glenavon FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 0-4 (L)
Warrenpoint Town
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Warrenpoint Town win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.