NAMMO Stadion · Referee H. Holthe · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Raufoss vs Sandnes ULF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Raufoss and 1.83 for Sandnes ULF, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives Sandnes ULF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sandnes ULF win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Raufoss home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sandnes ULF away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Raufoss
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stromsgodset · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ODD Ballklubb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger · 1-9 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandnes ULF · 0-3 (L)
Sandnes ULF
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Strommen · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moss · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arendal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stromsgodset · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ranheim · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 0-3 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2026-02-15T12:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 0-0 Sandnes ULF (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 1-1 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2024-04-15T17:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 0-2 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2023-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 1-1 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2023-04-22T13:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 0-0 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2022-07-31T13:30:00.000Z · Raufoss 1-1 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2022-07-04T16:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 4-1 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2021-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 1-0 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
- 2021-06-12T16:00:00.000Z · Raufoss 1-1 Sandnes ULF (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kongsvinger | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 39 | 56 |
| 2 | Haugesund | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 56 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 54 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | ODD Ballklubb | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Bryne | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | hodd | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -10 | 34 |
| 8 | Egersund | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 32 |
| 9 | Ranheim | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -1 | 31 |
| 10 | Lyn | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -14 | 28 |
| 11 | Moss | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 28 |
| 12 | Strommen | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -17 | 27 |
| 13 | Sandnes ULF | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Sogndal | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | -16 | 23 |
| 15 | Asane | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -18 | 23 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 24 | 6 | 1 | 17 | -36 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sandnes ULF win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.