Stadio Comunale Bruno Benelli · Referee A. Di Reda · Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
Ravenna vs Perugia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Ravenna and 0.64 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Ravenna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ravenna win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ravenna home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Perugia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ravenna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Ravenna and 0.64 for Perugia, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.2%
- 1–013.8%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.9%
Recent form
Ravenna
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gubbio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ostia Mare · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Perugia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pescara · 0-0 (D)
Perugia
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Reggiana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Grosseto · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Spezia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravenna · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pineto · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Torres | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Livorno | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 9 | Campobasso FC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pescara | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Forli | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Vado | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Latina | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Pineto | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ravenna win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.