Prince George's Fields · Analysis updated 18:04 UTC
Raynes Park Vale vs Kingstonian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Raynes Park Vale and 1.33 for Kingstonian, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Raynes Park Vale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Raynes Park Vale home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kingstonian away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raynes Park Vale to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Raynes Park Vale and 1.33 for Kingstonian, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Raynes Park Vale
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Littlehampton Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascot United · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bognor Regis Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingstonian · 2-1 (W)
Kingstonian
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leatherhead · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Three Bridges · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Herne Bay · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Beaconsfield Town · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs South Park · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Raynes Park Vale 2-1 Kingstonian (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2025-12-27T15:00:00.000Z · Raynes Park Vale 1-1 Kingstonian (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2025-03-25T19:45:00.000Z · Raynes Park Vale 3-0 Kingstonian (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
- 2024-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Raynes Park Vale 4-2 Kingstonian (Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central)
Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leatherhead | 42 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 96 |
| 2 | Westfield (Surrey) | 42 | 26 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 84 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 42 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 48 | 81 |
| 4 | Moneyfields | 42 | 25 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 80 |
| 5 | AFC Portchester | 42 | 22 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 73 |
| 6 | Southall | 42 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 65 |
| 7 | Egham Town | 42 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 64 |
| 8 | Harrow Borough | 42 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 64 |
| 9 | Hayes & Yeading United | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | -16 | 61 |
| 10 | South Park | 42 | 17 | 8 | 17 | -1 | 59 |
| 11 | Bognor Regis Town | 42 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 57 |
| 12 | Hartley Wintney | 42 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 56 |
| 13 | Kingstonian | 42 | 16 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 56 |
| 14 | Raynes Park Vale | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | -9 | 53 |
| 15 | Bedfont Sports | 42 | 13 | 11 | 18 | -6 | 50 |
| 16 | Ascot United | 42 | 15 | 4 | 23 | -4 | 49 |
| 17 | Hendon | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | -12 | 48 |
| 18 | Binfield | 42 | 14 | 6 | 22 | -13 | 48 |
| 19 | Littlehampton Town | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | -23 | 46 |
| 20 | Metropolitan Police | 42 | 12 | 8 | 22 | -25 | 44 |
| 21 | Horndean | 42 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -64 | 31 |
| 22 | Fareham Town | 42 | 6 | 7 | 29 | -46 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.