Estadio Cerro del Espino · Referee J. Figueiredo Comesana · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Rayo Majadahonda vs Teruel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rayo Majadahonda and 0.70 for Teruel, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Rayo Majadahonda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rayo Majadahonda win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayo Majadahonda home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Teruel away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rayo Majadahonda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Rayo Majadahonda and 0.70 for Teruel, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–110.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 64.8% vs market 54.5%, edge +10.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 54.5% | 64.8% | 1.54 | +10.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 47.5% | 48.0% | 2.08 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 69.6% | 1.44 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 30.5% | 30.4% | 3.29 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.5% | 78.4% | 1.28 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.3% | 52.0% | 1.92 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.0% | 21.6% | 4.63 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.5% | 35.2% | 2.84 | -10.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rayo Majadahonda
- 2026-10-11T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Teruel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cartagena · 1-1 (D)
Teruel
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Majadahonda · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Huesca · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · Rayo Majadahonda 2-0 Teruel (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-03-02T17:00:00.000Z · Rayo Majadahonda 0-1 Teruel (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · Rayo Majadahonda 0-0 Teruel (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Villarreal II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Hercules | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Alcorcon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Cartagena | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Jaén | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Antequera | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Huesca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Ibiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Europa Fc | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Teruel | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 19 | Rayo Majadahonda | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rayo Majadahonda win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.