· Analysis updated 17:51 UTC
Rayo Vallecano II vs Galapagar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano II and 3.15 for Galapagar, a combined total of 4.73. That distribution gives Galapagar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Galapagar win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 3.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayo Vallecano II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Galapagar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Galapagar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 16% / 15% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Rayo Vallecano II and 3.15 for Galapagar, a combined 4.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 1–45.7%
- 2–35.7%
- 2–25.5%
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano II
- 2026-10-25T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Colonia Moscardó · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Trival Valderas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs RC Alcobendas · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Galapagar · 1-2 (L)
Galapagar
- 2026-10-18T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Móstoles · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Leganés II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cala Pozuelo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Móstoles | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Las Rozas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Colonia Moscardó | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Galapagar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Cala Pozuelo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Unión Adarve | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Trival Valderas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Aranjuez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Parla Escuela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Alcobendas Sport | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Galapagar win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.