Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.93 for Elche, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Elche the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rayo Vallecano home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Elche away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Rayo Vallecano win38%

Draw21%

Elche win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.1%
1–27.8%
2–17.6%
2–27.3%
1–35.0%

Recent form

Rayo Vallecano

2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-31T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-5 (L)

Elche

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-03T19:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
2025-12-21T17:30:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Elche (La Liga)
2023-04-29T14:15:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Elche (La Liga)
2022-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche (La Liga)
2022-02-18T20:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Elche (La Liga)
2021-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche (La Liga)
2021-01-16T21:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Elche (Copa del Rey)
2020-03-08T11:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 2-3 Elche (Segunda División)
2019-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Elche (Segunda División)
2017-01-21T17:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Elche (Segunda División)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.