Estadio Municipal de Butarque · Referee I. Diaz · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.85 for Espanyol, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Espanyol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Espanyol win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayo Vallecano home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Espanyol away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-31T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 2-5 (L)
Espanyol
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2026-04-23T18:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2025-12-07T17:30:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2025-04-04T19:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 0-4 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2024-08-31T17:15:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2023-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2022-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2022-04-21T17:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2021-12-05T13:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
- 2021-07-24T00:00:00.000Z · Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Espanyol (Friendlies Clubs)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Espanyol win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.