Estadio José Pachencho Romero · Referee C. Marabay · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Rayo Zuliano and 1.58 for Deportivo La Guaira, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Deportivo La Guaira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo La Guaira win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayo Zuliano home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Guaira away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo La Guaira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Rayo Zuliano and 1.58 for Deportivo La Guaira, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Rayo Zuliano
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Urena SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-3 (L)
Deportivo La Guaira
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Carabobo FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Anzoátegui FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo La Guaira win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.