Estadio José Pachencho Romero · Referee Y. Herrera · Analysis updated 19:31 UTC
Rayo Zuliano vs Monagas SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rayo Zuliano and 1.74 for Monagas SC, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Monagas SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayo Zuliano home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monagas SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monagas SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Rayo Zuliano and 1.74 for Monagas SC, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.8%
Recent form
Rayo Zuliano
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Trujillanos FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Portuguesa FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Urena SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-3 (L)
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.