· Analysis updated 07:37 UTC
Rayon Sports vs Kiyovu Sports Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for Rayon Sports and 0.57 for Kiyovu Sports, a combined total of 1.26. That distribution gives Rayon Sports the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 13% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.1% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayon Sports home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kiyovu Sports away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–028.3%
- 1–019.6%
- 0–116.1%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Rayon Sports
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Bulls Maputo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Black Bulls Maputo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sunrise · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthère · 0-0 (D)
Kiyovu Sports
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Marines · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bugesera · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Musanze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorilla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayon Sports · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 1-1 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2025-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 2-0 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2025-02-15T16:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 2-1 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2024-11-02T16:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 4-0 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2024-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 0-1 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2023-12-12T16:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 1-1 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2023-02-05T13:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 0-0 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2022-11-11T16:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 1-2 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2022-03-19T13:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 0-2 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
- 2021-12-05T13:00:00.000Z · Rayon Sports 0-2 Kiyovu Sports (National Soccer League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Mukura | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Gicumbi | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Marines | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Sunrise | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Musanze | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Gasogi United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Police | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 13%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.