Rayong Provincial Stadium · Referee C. Inboonsong · Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Rayong FC vs Prachuap Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.38 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Prachuap the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rayong FC home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Prachuap away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prachuap to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Rayong FC and 1.38 for Prachuap, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Rayong FC
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chonburi FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Prachuap · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangkok United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 1-6 (L)
Prachuap
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sukhothai FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Uthai Thani | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Bangkok United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | Prachuap | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Port FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Ratchaburi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Chiangrai United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pattani | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Sukhothai FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 15 | Rasi Salai United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.