World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 1622:00

01

Wednesday, 12 August 2026

Atletico-MGDWDWL

Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques · Referee Leandro Rey Hilfer, Argentina · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC

RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.85 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives RB Bragantino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

RB Bragantino to Win

52.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

RB Bragantino win53%
Draw26%
Atletico-MG win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Both teams to score45%

Correct score

  • 1–014.3%
  • 1–112.2%
  • 2–010.7%
  • 0–09.5%
  • 2–19.1%

Why the model likes this

  • RB Bragantino home form

    7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates RB Bragantino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.50 goals for RB Bragantino and 0.85 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

RB Bragantino

  • 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-30T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 0-0 (D)
  • 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-0 (D)

Atletico-MG

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.