· Analysis updated 09:39 UTC
RB Leipzig U19 vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 1.33 for Erzgebirge Aue U19, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives RB Leipzig U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RB Leipzig U19 win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 1.33 for Erzgebirge Aue U19, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
RB Leipzig U19
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T12:05:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 3-4 (L)
Erzgebirge Aue U19
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig U19 win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.