· Analysis updated 21:50 UTC
RB Leipzig U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.68 expected goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 1.33 for Greuther Fürth U19, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives RB Leipzig U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
RB Leipzig U19 win
79.6% probability
Expected goals
3.68 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Greuther Fürth U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 11% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.68 goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 1.33 for Greuther Fürth U19, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.4%
- 4–16.8%
- 2–16.0%
- 3–05.6%
- 4–05.1%
Recent form
RB Leipzig U19
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T12:05:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 3-4 (L)
Greuther Fürth U19
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig U19 win, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.