· Analysis updated 07:41 UTC
RB Leipzig U19 vs Nürnberg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.40 expected goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 2.63 for Nürnberg U19, a combined total of 6.03. That distribution gives RB Leipzig U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 89% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RB Leipzig U19 win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
3.40 – 2.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nürnberg U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 16% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.40 goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 2.63 for Nürnberg U19, a combined 6.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.5%
- 2–24.8%
- 3–34.8%
- 4–24.6%
- 2–34.2%
Recent form
RB Leipzig U19
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T12:05:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 3-4 (L)
Nürnberg U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig U19 win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 89% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.