· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
RB Leipzig U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.13 expected goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 1.20 for Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19, a combined total of 5.33. That distribution gives RB Leipzig U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RB Leipzig U19 win
85.6% probability
Expected goals
4.13 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig U19 home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 8% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.13 goals for RB Leipzig U19 and 1.20 for Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19, a combined 5.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–17.0%
- 3–16.8%
- 4–05.9%
- 5–15.8%
- 3–05.7%
Recent form
RB Leipzig U19
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T12:05:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 3-4 (L)
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig U19 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig U19 win, at 85.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.