RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.78 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives RB Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

RB Leipzig win

54.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.53 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

RB Leipzig home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

RB Leipzig win54%

Draw19%

Bayer Leverkusen win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.7%
2–26.8%
3–16.5%
1–16.1%
3–25.7%

Recent form

RB Leipzig

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)

Bayer Leverkusen

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 1-4 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2025-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2025-01-25T14:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2024-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2024-01-20T17:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2023-08-19T13:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2023-04-23T15:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2022-10-29T13:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
2022-04-17T17:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.