Leipzig Red Bull Arena · Referee Daniel Siebert, Germany · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 1.19 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives RB Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RB Leipzig win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eintracht Frankfurt away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.19 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–17.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 38.1% vs market 33.3%, edge +4.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.80 | 33.3% | 38.1% | 2.62 | +4.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.53 | 60.4% | 60.5% | 1.65 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.75 | 19.5% | 19.6% | 5.10 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.3% | 80.4% | 1.24 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 39.5% | 39.5% | 2.53 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 20.1% | 19.9% | 5.03 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.3% | 80.1% | 1.25 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 66.7% | 61.9% | 1.62 | -4.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
RB Leipzig
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)
Eintracht Frankfurt
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.